The Graduate School of International Studies Holds Public Lecture,
’China’s Rise and America’s Response’

On December 5, Dr. Richard Bush, a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution and Director of its Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies delivered a public lecture on ‘China’s Rise and America’s Response’ held by the Graduate School of International Studies, Seoul National University. As a specialist on China, Dr. Bush focused on China's recent rise in the international arena and the role of the United States in dealing with China.

In the beginning of the lecture, Dr. Bush broke the ice by mentioning a frequently asked question regarding his last name, whether he is related to George W. Bush, the current president of the USA, to which the answer is no.

He introduced the realist view that an international conflict is likely when regional and global power balances shift quickly, and questioned whether China would challenge American hegemony and bring instability to East Asia. “Chinese leaders have been fairly cautious so far,” he said, defining China’s main goals since 1990 as “enhancing its reputation as a more cooperative international actor,” and “engaging in a concerted effort to improve bilateral relations with the world’s other major.”

Bush analyzed the strategy that the United States has been adopting as ‘hedging’, also saying that the possible ‘mutual hedging’ might lead to the maximization of suspicion and not opportunity for both sides. “The United States can manage the China challenge,” he said, keeping a positive outlook of the capability of the United States in managing China. This opinion is based on the analysis of China’s internal problems, the importance of interdependence in the global era, the superior military power of the United States, China’s accommodation of the U.S. hegemony, the consistency of the U.S. policy towards China, all of which lead Chinese strategy in the direction of global responsibility.

“There are two qualifications to the judgment that the United States can manage the China challenge,” he said, “First, America must be willing and able to continue to play the kind of global leadership role it has since 1945. Second, American power intersects most directly with China’s in East Asia, and it does so on specific issues like Taiwan and North Korea.” Bush concluded his lecture saying that “through the interaction between two nations, they both will learn significant lessons about each other, and the mutual learning will define whether they will be rivals or partners.”

When asked about the purpose of the recent U.S. anti-missile arms sales to Taiwan that might provoke China in the Q & A session after the lecture, Bush said that “since the continuing military expansion of China will eventually lead to the national security crisis of Taiwan, the U.S. arms sales to Taiwan is affirmative in order to prevent the lack of recognition.”

Dr. Richard Bush came to Brookings Institution, a nonprofit policy studies think tank based in Washington, D.C. in July 2002. He is the author of At Cross Purposes, Untying the Knot, and the recently published book, A War Like No Other: The Truth About China’s Challenge to America (Wiley, 2007). He is currently working on a book examining the structural factors in the U.S.-Japan-China trilateral relationship.

Dec. 10, 2007
SNU PR Office